Draft trades were expected to be a big portion of the NFL Draft’s first round on Thursday night. There had already been two major moves for the top two picks weeks before the first selection was made. Draft night didn’t see any other blockbusters and no players were moved — Muhammad Wilkerson, Colin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford were among those rumored — but there were five trades during Thursday night’s first round.
Trades on draft night typically favor one team — the one trading down — but that’s not always the case. They also usually aren’t nearly as one-sided as the pre-draft trades that involve the top picks and involve much less than what the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles gave up.
With that said, let’s take a look at how each of the five trades from draft night played out by taking a look at both Football Perspective’s AV chart and the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart. Picks will be listed as overall selection.
Titans Trades Back into Top 10
Tennessee received: 8, 176
Cleveland received: 15, 76, 2017 second-round pick
The two teams involved in the separate trades that moves the first two overall picks came together for a trade of their own. With the Titans liking how the board fell and tackle Jack Conklin sitting at No. 8, they made a trade with the Browns to move back up into the first round. The trade not only netted Cleveland another top-100 pick (76th overall), but they also got an additional second-round pick in 2017.
Through the AV chart this trade shows again how little future picks are valued by teams when trying to trade up. The Browns come out in top of AV before even factoring in where the 2017 second-round pick will fall. Cleveland will now has four picks on Friday night starting at No. 32 and ending with two selections in a row at 76 and 77. The 2017 second-rounder gets added to the first-round pick received from the Eagles next year and the 2018 second-round pick. The Browns not only improved their draft capital this year, but are now set up with multiple valuable high picks in the next two drafts.
Of course the Johnson chart has the Browns slightly behind in value in just 2016. However the 161 point difference in 2016 is worth around the 86th pick in the draft, which is a mid-third round pick. This holds with the idea that teams discount a round when valuing picks for the next year. The Titans feel like they’re giving away a present third-round value, but for a rebuilding team like the Browns, they’ll be getting a solid second-round investment.
Bears Trade Up To No. 9, Leapfrog Giants
Chicago received: 9
Tampa Bay received: 11, 106
Reliable Giants beat reporters have been expressing the interest the team had in selecting Georgia linebacker Leonard Floyd with the 10th overall pick. The Bears, too, had interest in Floyd and move up in front of the Giants due to a trade with the Buccaneers to select Floyd.
AV gives a slight edge to the Buccaneers, getting an extra fourth-round pick just to move back two spots — and in turn getting the cornerback they coveted all along, even while the Giants selected a corner in front of them. Tampa Bay received 117.5 percent of what they gave up to allow the Bears to jump the Giants.
Houston and Washington Flip Places
Houston received: 21
Washington received: 22, 2017 sixth-round pick
Almost every mock leading up to the draft featured a wide receiver run starting with the Houston Texans. That run was supposed to start at pick 22 and include the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans, fearing one of those clubs coveted Will Fuller, moved up one slot with Washington to select the Notre Dame wide receiver and start the run at No. 21. Washington allowed Houston to move up for Fuller, moved back a slot and selected TCU wide receiver Josh Doctson.
There’s only a 0.3 AV difference between the 21st and 22nd overall picks. That’s equivalent to anywhere between the 217th to 220th overall pick, a late seventh-rounder. Washington got a sixth-rounder next year, again meshing with the one-round discount for future picks. Washington got extra value to allow Houston to trade up for a receiver they had no interest in while still selecting a talented, well-rounded receiver a pick later.
The sixth-round value does come up as the difference between the two selections by the old Jimmy Johnson chart. The 20-point difference is equivalent to between the 178th (20.2) and 179th (19.8) picks in the draft, which come in the sixth round.
Broncos Trade Up for a Quarterback
Denver received: 26
Seattle received: 31, 94
WIthout a starting caliber quarterback on the roster — sorry, Mark — the Broncos were a rumored landing place for many of the top options for trade. They reportedly reached out to Philadelphia, but found the asking price for Sam Bradford too high and they’ve been linked to Colin Kaepernick for most off the offseason. The Broncos bypassed a veteran option and traded up in the first round to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch.
It’s been clear trading up for a quarterback can be costly and the trade up for Denver was no different. For present day value, this was the biggest win for a team trading back on Thursday night. Seattle received 132.4 percent of the value from the 26th overall pick. The Seahawks then selected offensive lineman Germain Ifedi, their rumored target all along. They also snagged a late-third rounder four picks after their scheduled third-round selection (90).
Even the Jimmy Johnson chart agrees the Seahawks got the better end of the trade in terms of draft capital — which is evident by the massive AV gap. Seattle received 103.4 percent value of what they sent to Denver.
49ers Move Back into First
San Francisco received: 28
Kansas City received: 37, 105, 178
With some quarterbacks set to be available in the back end of the first-round, it was expected there would be a few teams that picked early to be interested in moving back up into the round. The 49ers did just that, but instead of a quarterback, San Francisco drafted guard Joshua Garnett from Stanford. The Chiefs were the only team to trade out of the first-round on Thursday.
Kansas City’s haul comes close to what Seattle received from Denver, getting 135.8 percent of value back from the 28th overall pick. While the Chiefs don’t get a first-round pick this year, the haul of second-, fourth- and sixth-round picks are almost equal value to Seattle’s first- and third-round return.
However the Johnson chart sees this closer to even value, mostly due to the lack of first-round return for the Chiefs. By AV, the 37th overall pick is worth 86.6 percent of the 28th pick, while the Johnson chart has the early second-round pick as just 80.3 percent of its value.